Bitter and Sunny sides of the Calamity: Covid-19

As the world settles in to deal with the outbreak and spread of the corona virus, the future seems uncertain and unpredictable. Leading biologists, epidemiologist and statisticians of the world are in furtive search of a model that explains the behavior of Covid-19. The number of daily infections and deaths defy comprehension. If each count of death represents a life-story, then there are now nearly 30 thousand tragic stories. The print, social and electronic media is full of coverage of its deadly course, and eyes skip every other news to latch on to every tidbit about virus. This author too took up the laptop to write on an event of 813 AD but found it hard to concentrate on anything else than this raging affliction. There are vague estimates on the time that it would take for the virus to play out its course. While it is certain that all earlier virus epidemics and pandemics have ultimately outlived their dangerous course and that a combination of human biology and medical expertise ultimately triumphed over these deadly micro-organisms, it is not certain how much cost it will demand of humanity this time in terms of collective lives lost, individual pains caused and collateral economic collapse. Many people mention ‘herd immunity’ which essentially hides the painful fact that we all shall catch the virus sooner or later. Then according to the Darwinian rule of ‘Natural Selection’, those who overcome its onslaught and survive shall continue the human race. Those not making the ‘selection’ shall return to the maker, as all of us must in our own time. That would make, according to the projected models in the absence of a vaccine, 10 to 20 million fatalities in the next three years by which time, all of us should have caught the virus and the survivors would have developed the anti-bodies. There is thus no denying that the humanity is in for troubled times in the near future. Some encouraging figures have been reported from around the globe in terms of lower new infections, lower deaths, flatter curves and more recoveries, and in this lies the hope that the ‘peak’ of pandemic shall pass before the peak of the summer in northern hemisphere, bringing some semblance of normality in the world. In the process, world economy would take a terrible battering, certainly more that than the recession of 2007-08. The world has not seen this level of downturn since the great depression of 1920-21 which also occurred after a similar pandemic; that of Spanish (actually American) Influenza. While the ‘bad news’ abounds and pall of gloom thickens, there is some also a sunny side to the calamity. One is a surge in scientific activity. Up to 30 Jan, more than 50 research papers had been published as scientists rush to understand the pathogen and how it spreads. By mid-March, there were over 300 journal articles while the pre-print articles were nearing 600. One of the first papers on the virus was published online on 3rd Feb but submitted on 20th Jan by a team of Wuhan based Chinese researchers from Institute of Virology, Chinese Academy of Sciences and some hospitals. The paper was curiously titled as “A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin.” Institutes and laboratories around the world are in a fevered state to find a cure and a vaccine for the microbe. A flurry of scientific activity has been extending human horizon, promising a better future. In Pakistan too, we hear encouraging news of development of testing kits, plasma treatment, ventilators, PPEs and face-masks. It shows that while the religious elements are behaving in their expected obscurantist manner, the scientists are playing their part to mitigate the suffering of the masses. There are widespread reports from across the country that hospital emergencies have little workload. The major emergency patients were road accident victims, diarrhea patients and ailments resulting from polluted environment. With restricted movement and empty roads, motorcycle accidents too came down to zero, which otherwise contributed heavily to the accident toll, mainly involving young boys. Similarly, with the restaurants and street food stalls closed, people are forced to eat healthy at home resulting in fewer stomach ailments. The crime rate too has fallen. There are no murders or quarrels or even gang wars. Surprisingly, there are no more honour killings. The virus has tamed the male chauvinists. Even rape incidents have subsided to nearly nil whereas there were, according to The Tribune of 15th March, as much as 70 of these grisly incidents in Lahore alone in the first two months. The virus is putting fear of God even in the most felonious. As usual, the generous side of the nation is in full display. NGOs are overflowing with donated ration. Sindh government announced that by the middle of April, two hundred thousand families were supplied ration officially, whereas the NGOs had done it for nearly three and a half hundred thousand. That is remarkable and a proud moment. On the international level, there appears to be quiet on all combat fronts. No one is aerial bombing nor is any army invading. The multiple sided conflicts in Syria have cooled down. Even the Taleban activities have come to near stop, giving the Afghans their first peace spell in four decades. Saudi coalition has announced a truce in Yemen, the first such welcome break for the hapless country in five years. Neither is US threatening Iran nor is North Korea displaying bellicosity against her neighbours. These welcome breaks in hostilities are understandable because with social distancing compulsions, no nation can assemble offensive troops. With the tragic sagas of various pleasure-cruise ships and the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt, the security of war ships is severely compromised. It is reported that four US aircraft carriers are infected with the virus as is the French nuclear powered aircraft carrier Charles De Gaulle. It will take some time before the bellicose powers can project their forces with confidence. A little virus has brought peace the world over. There are signs that the mother earth is breathing easy once again, perhaps for the first time in fifty years when the level of carbon and nitrogen dioxides rose rapidly due to wider use of fossil fuels to run the electric power plants, and to power the land and air transports. The satellite data suggests that in these two short months, the emission levels have reduced enormously. This author clearly recalls a sky full of stars in the clear night skies of Lahore in 1960s. One could even see the US and Soviet satellites high up in space. Once could even observe from a hill station, the hazy band of white light that is our galaxy the Milky Way. Unfortunately, the pollution has taken its toll and our children are lucky if they even see a clear horizon on any given day. There are reports that people in Jullundur, India are seeing the 17000-feet high peaks of Dhauladar Range for the first time in a generation. This is the same city where for much of winter, the smog had concealed the sun and the visibility had dropped to near zero. Several people that this author has spoken to in these weeks, display a pleasant realization that human beings have few essential needs. Life is fine without eating out, long drives and frequent shopping. Even the stressful issue of having children as well as one or both parents at home is providing an opportunity for greater bonding within the family. Reading is once again becoming a favourite past time. The virus will eventually be overcome. In addition to having a great biology, humans are capable of finding solutions to complex problems. As people begin to go about their lives, the infections will rise and cause fatalities but there will be a vaccine, some protocols and many medicines that will rein in the virus. The life will continue in a normal world. This article appeared in the weekly The Friday Times on 24th Apr 2020 Parvez Mahmood retired as a Group Captain from PAF and is now a software engineer. He lives in Islamabad and writes on social and historical issues. He can be reached at parvezmahmood53@gmail.com